I choose to create a business to try and create that future scenario. So was born Rally, a company created to bring lean flow, service and social well-being to the High Technology industry. In that last six years, we have done that by offering a world-wide hosted services for collaborative development agile development. We are the #1 Partner for companies trying to achieve real success with software agility. Now as the lean concepts and Rally hosted and professional services help large scale enterprise achieve software agility success, we are being asked to extend those benefits up and out to create agile enterprises. To me agile enterprises are the kinds of businesses that can balance long-term important changes like cap and trade impacts with short-term needs as well. These kind of enterprise give me hope that business can help turn the ship toward an 80% reduction in carbon output in 20 years.

Of course, this is not the only global scenario that is possible in the next twenty years.

I can see status quo scenario that leads to place were the change in climate massively impacts the human population. I think the documentary Earth 2100 did a good job of telling this scenario. I would call that the failure pattern and I refuse to give up and just party hard, down the current path. I choose to work the other plan.

With regard to how High Technology Industry can change to become sustainable or net neutral in its negative impact on the planet, I see a scenario that goes something like this:

0. Global Climate Change legislation is passed in the US and we start a Cap-n-Trade program. The cap-and-trade program is critical to “getting the prices right” around the economic cost of carbon waste in our atmosphere. With that price signal to the market, we can unleash the entrepreneurial forces toward creating sustainable solutions, renewable energy solutions and ultimately solutions that are restorative. The EPA ruling today cleared some of the paths here.

1. The concept of RePower the planet works to move electrical energy generation to renewable sources by 2020. In that world, software as services companies like Rally, Ebay, Google can offer zero-carbon footprint solutions. They will be some of the first because they will differentiate with it. This is all provided these companies have buildings that do not produce carbon and employees that commute in carbon-free vehicles. Of course, many of these employees are not commuting a ton because virtual meetings, teleprecense and global collaboration systems from the zero footprint High Technology companies will allow them to work comfortably from anywhere. Hence my goal to get Rally to zero carbon by 2020 to enable this world. These will be the early adopters in companies that work with electrons or work on a small local scale. On the home front, conservation will be king as new renewable power solutions will have to build out and come down a cost curve.

2. Once you have firms that are close to zero and momentum towards an overall energy infrastructure that is based on sustainable sources, you can can start working on the harder jobs. By 2020, I assume take-back laws like we see in Europe will filter into a majority of countries and apply to a majority of hard-goods products. As a result, most product companies will start behaving like a service. They will rent you the product, but take it back for reuse and recycle. In a service world, using and disposing of toxic chemicals will be a very costly part of a business; thus most firms will shy away from the use of these toxic and non-sustainable materials. We will be on a path to 80% overall reduction in carbon output from the entire world. The goal required to keep the earth from warming by less than 2 degrees, on average. (See the C-learn simulation site.) To meet these food supply, energy supply, transportation will all have gone through a revolution and the High Technology firms will be there to help enable their transition to more sustainable, local and lean approaches. Where consumption is in a close loop cycle, not an open loop take-make-waste cycle.

These are the major steps I see. This story is very technology oriented, but many social justice and social equity changes will be have to happen during these transitions too.

In your second section, you bring up population reduction. Having been a student of Albert Bartlet of the University of Colorado, I was introduced to his exponential growth lecture, which he has done over 1500 times, back in fall of 1984. As Al points out only cancer and adolescents grow exponentially. It is not healthy to grow like that. We have clearly grown beyond the carrying capacity of the earth, with our current life style. A small population makes this transition easier, but I do not believe it is necessary. I believe we can find our way to a restorative place where our life and work makes the world more diverse and healthy. In that world, we should have more people.

Finally, as we talked about at the SOL Learning and Leading for Sustainability workshop, it is real easy for the world to work on symptoms and not the root problems. Green washing is result of not having the ability to work on the real root problems, but just the symptoms. I believe this is a short-term issue until we start to crack modes of working that are based on natural cycles and bio-mimicry. When we have a complete power system from supply, transmission, storage and usage based on renewable energy, we will be working on the root cause. This is where you are correct, the current industrial revolution powered by burning fossil fuels is unsustainable. We can kiss that approach goodbye.

http://www.lowtechmagazine.com/2009/06/embodied-energy-of-digital-technology.html

It seems to me that people the “Developed World” (i.e. you and I) need to radically change our lifestyles so as to massively reduce our consumption of everything. Secondly the World as a whole needs to stabilise and reduce its population to a level that can be sustained without further degrading the biosphere i.e. consuming the “Natural Capital” you mention faster than it can be replenished.

http://www.steadystate.org/
http://www.optimumpopulation.org/

Corporate Greenwash and more Green Consumerism isn’t the answer.

http://permacultureprinciples.com/principles.php

Anyway, its all academic. Everything we have is predicated on abundent cheap energy. Peak Oil will be along in a few years and it will be downhill from there. I’m afraid the writing is on the wall for Global Capitalism and “High Technology”. Maybe you should consider quiting the software business and start re-skilling for the post petroleum era?

http://www.energybulletin.net/start

Anyway, good luck. Whatever happens.